Child marriage is higher in more arid areas

Child marriage is more common in arid areas and locations with frequent droughts. Families may turn to child marriage as a way to cope with lower agricultural yields, ecosystem productivity losses, higher food prices and economic pressures during dry periods. These increases in child marriage are most noticeable in areas where the practice is culturally accepted.

Source: UN Women calculations based on DHS data and geospatial data from DHS Geocovariates for 2015. Note: All countries where both types of data were available are included in the analysis. The differences across arid and humid areas are significant (p<0.01) for all countries considered, with the exception of Myanmar (p=0.49) and Philippines (p=0.25). The aridity index represents the average yearly precipitation divided by average yearly potential evapotranspiration – a measure of the drying power of the atmosphere to remove water from land surfaces by evaporation (e.g., from the soil and plant canopy) and via plant transpiration. Humid refers to the top 25 per cent values, and arid to the bottom 25 per cent values of cluster level aridity. For visual brevity, the central values of the aridity distribution are not shown. Although the official SDG indicator 5.3.1 on child marriage refers to women ages 20–24, this age group would yield an insufficient sample size for this analysis and thus ages 18-49 was used instead.

Adolescent births are more common in arid areas within a country

While factors such as limited access to family planning, poor reproductive health services, and cultural and religious beliefs contribute to adolescent births, evidence suggests that environmental variables such as aridity and proximity to water sources also play an important role. These factors matter especially in Bangladesh and Nepal, where child marriage is more common. Climate change may worsen existing rates in these countries.

Source: UN Women calculations based on DHS and geospatial data from DHS Geocovariates from 2015. Note: All countries where both types of data were available are included in the analysis. The differences are statistically significant (p<0.01) for all countries considered, except Myanmar (p=0.39) and Philippines (p=0.25). The aridity index represents the average yearly precipitation divided by average yearly potential evapotranspiration – a measure of the drying power of the atmosphere to remove water from land surfaces by evaporation (e.g., from the soil and plant canopy) and via plant transpiration. Humid refers to the top 25 per cent values, and arid to the bottom 25 per cent values of cluster level aridity. For visual brevity, the central values of the aridity distribution are not shown. This indicator refers to women ages 18–49 who reported having had a child before the age of 18. As such, this indicator differs from the official SDG indicator 3.7.2 (adolescent birth rate), which focuses on women and girls who delivered a child between ages 10–14 and 15–19, as the SDG indicator did not yield a large enough sample size for this analysis.

In Cambodia, changes in aridity and rainfall affect access to clean drinking water

The relationship between humidity and access to clean water varies by season (rainy vs. dry). In Cambodia, more humid areas are more prone to lacking clean water during the dry season. This is because the many people who rely on rainwater for drinking in humid areas of the country turn to open-surface water sources, like rivers and lakes, when rain is unavailable. In more arid areas, however, the more consistent lack of rain has led to the construction of more tube wells, which provide clean water throughout the year. Climate change is expected to further alter the predictability of rain patterns, and thus increase water collection burdens on women, who, 8 out of 10 times, are the ones in charge of fetching water in the world’s households that lack it.

Note: * indicates improved water source. Clusters are classified as arid if aridity index values fall in the bottom 25% of all values, and humid if aridity index values fall in the top 25% of all values.

In Cambodia, child marriage rates are increasing with the heightened frequency of drought episodes

Almost one in five girls in Cambodia are child brides. In many cases, families marry off their daughters as a coping mechanism to deal with poverty. As such, these rates are much higher in the poorest households. Droughts appear to be aggravating this situation. Across all wealth quintiles, child marriage rates were higher in clusters where drought episodes happen more frequently. Being born in a richer household shields girls from child marriage to a certain extent, but even those in wealthier households are more likely to experience child marriage in the context of more frequent droughts. If droughts continue to increase, girls born in the poorest 40% of households will be those most likely to suffer the consequences of child marriage – including adolescent pregnancies, increased exposure to violence, loss of education and professional development opportunities, as well as a loss of agency.

Intimate partner violence may worsen when crises overlap 

The drivers of violence against women are complex, but social norms, economic hardship, psychological stress and situations of displacement, for instance, are known to increase the incidence of violence against women. Big data analysis shows that, in contexts where various crises overlap (e.g. two or more environment-related crises, or an environment-related crisis and a pandemic, conflict, etc.), women and girls are more likely to use Google and other search engines to seek violence-related help. Although this doesn’t necessarily equate to proportional increases in the incidence of violence against women, it signals that the problem may worsen during those times.

In Kiribati, a surge in violence-related Google searches was noted in March 2021 when the country experienced La Niña weather patterns, which resulted in a prolonged period of dry spells and again in March 2022 during a nationwide COVID-19 curfew which overlapped with a double-dip La Niña leading up to a state of drought. 

Note: Darker shades of vertical bars indicate overlapping crises. The darker the shade, the higher the number of overlapping crises.

In Tonga, there was an increase in Internet searches related to violence against women between December 2020 and July 2021. During that time, Tonga was experiencing several crises, some simultaneously, such as cyclones, heavy rainfalls and La Niña. In December 2021, and January and February 2022, the dips in Internet usage were due to power outages and Internet connection interruptions due to outages caused by these very environmental events. After the Internet connections were restored, increases in searches related to violence against women were observed in the country.

Note: Darker shades of vertical bars indicate overlapping crises. The darker the shade, the higher the number of overlapping crises.